Well, we've had two weeks of analysis up the wazoo! Every angle, every perspective, every view of Gronkowski's ankle. I wish the NFL would have the good sense to go back to playing this game one week after the respective conference championships. But it is what it is, and, mercifully, it's almost game time. So what should we look for? What will it come down to?
First, to the extent that the Pats can go to their two tight end sets, that could, very likely, neutralize New York's defensive line advantage. Give Brady that little extra time, that modicum of protection and he could have a game to remember, based on quick slants to Welker and Brown and little screens and swing passes to Hernandez, Faulk, and Green-Ellis.
Next, if the Giants can't run with some combination of Bradshaw and Jacobs, not only will they not win, but they won't deserve to win. These two guys are beasts, but for some reason I can't figure, the Giants haven't fed them consistently throughout the playoffs. Jacobs has been on the bench 95% of the time for reasons I have yet to determine, and Bradshaw has only been moderately effective. So New York has got to get these guys running north-south and averaging 4 yards plus a carry, if they're serious about winning.
Third, let's all be prepared for one or two major Belichick wrinkles. We saw him running Hernandez as a tailback out of the backfield earlier in the playoffs. We've seen him use Julian Edelman and Troy Brown in the defensive backfield. I look for a few plays to target the all-but-retired Chad Ocho-Cinco. I wouldn't be too surprised if Brady even throws a few to Sebastian Vollmer, the big offensive tackle from Houston, down in goal line situations, as he used to do with Mike Vrabel in days gone by. And then there's Danny Woodhead, captain of the All-Napolean team.
Fourth, we've heard a ton about the Patriots' defensive woes, particularly in the secondary. They'll have their hands full with Nicks, Cruz, and Manningham. And don't forget that the Giants have a pretty solid tight end of their own in Jake Ballard. But Bill Belichick has always been and still is a defensive genius. With two weeks to prepare for anybody, he can find a way to hide his own team's weaknesses and exploit the opposition's. Will he dial up blitzes, stunts with his D-line and backers, or just disguise the heck out of his coverage packages? He has always been the one coach in the league that not only comes up with the great game plan but also makes the mid-game and half-time adjustments that bring home the W.
And fifth, what about special teams? It was this area of the game that cost both the Niners and the Ravens from getting to the promised land. Who gets the special teams edge in Super Bowl 46? Well, in terms of punting, the Patriots have the ultimate field switcher in Zoltan Mesko. He is the league's most consistent and booming punter, in both distance and hang time. But in the field goal game, it is advantage Tynes and the G-men. On the return side, both squads have players who can bust off the long return, but the Giants have coughed up the ball lately. I see no clear advantage here.
Pretty much all of the experts are picking the Giants, and I think that is because man for man, they have more talent on both sides of the ball. But it's all going to come down to how those players play. Who brings it tomorrow from 6:30 to 10:00 pm EST? I'm glad I'm not a betting man, but if I were, I'd probably put my money on...the point spread. Play ball!
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