A Blog for the thoughtful sports fan by Toby Jones

Toby Jones is the author of two books, countless on-line articles, and numerous book, film, and music reviews.

Wednesday, February 8, 2012

A Very Typical Tom Brady Performance: Great but not Greatest

A few weeks ago on this very blog, I argued that Tom Brady was overrated as a QB. (See archive for “Tom Terrific or Tom Completely Over-rated? Some Thoughts on Tom Brady” Jan 11, 2012.) The way he played in Super Bowl 46 supported everything I wrote, and I was not at all surprised by his performance. In fact, in my view, it was a highly typical Tom Brady performance – great but by no means greatest ever.

In very typical Brady fashion, he looked brilliant in stretches, perhaps even superhuman. 16 completions in a row, spanning the last drive of the first half and the first drive of the second. These passes were all in the 7-12 yard range with some YAC (yardage after catch), and they were, for the most part, in no huddle, shot-gun sets. His completions also came with no real pass rush and, in most cases, were delivered to his primary receiver within 2 seconds of the snap.

To his credit, Brady is exceptionally good at this dimension of quarterbacking, and he deserves being spoken of as a “great” quarterback in this context. But he does NOT deserve to be in the conversation for “greatest” quarterbacks for all the other things we saw him do in Super Bowl 46, mistakes which are equally typical when Tom Brady takes the snap.

First and most importantly, he missed – MISSED – four wide open receivers in the fourth quarter alone. Any one of these, had Mr. Brady been on target, could have won his team the game and the Super Bowl championship. Let’s begin with Wes Welker. His “drop” has received a ton of attention, and yet none of the Brady worshipping sports media elite have been willing to state the most obvious point in this instance – Tom Brady threw a “back shoulder” ball to a receiver who was wide open! There was no defender within 5-7 yards of Welker; the only reason to ever throw a back shoulder ball is when coverage is tight and the receiver and QB have agreed on this kind of toss via signals and circumstances. Welker had to turn and rotate his body essentially backwards 180 degrees and time his jump perfectly. Yes, he still got his hands on the errant pass and blamed himself for not catching it, a class move on Welker’s part. But what would have been much classier, not to mention more accurate, would have been for Brady, himself, to stand up and say, “I missed Wes. He was wide open and I put the ball in the worst possible place for him to have to catch.”

But the worst miss on Brady’s part was another downfield throw over the middle to Deion Branch. Branch ran a great route and was just about to enter an expansive window of open field but Brady threw the ball both a half second too early and well behind the streaking Branch. The many replays from a variety of angles showed that he was under no immediate pressure and should have held the ball a bit longer and thrown it with more air under it. Branch, had he been thrown a catchable ball, had the entire left side of the field open and probably would have gotten another twenty yards after the catch, if not a touchdown. In true Brady worshipping fashion, the media has also dubbed this pass a “drop” by Branch, despite countless video evidence to the contrary.

The point here is that when it mattered most, Tom Terrific could not and did not deliver accurate, catchable balls to open receivers downfield. Yes, he can make the 5-10 yard quick deliveries all day long when there is no pressure on him with tremendous accuracy. But he could not do what his team most needed him to do and what Eli Manning did repeatedly in the fourth quarter – deliver the ball accurately downfield to open receivers.

Furthermore, Mr. Brady’s first play from scrimmage in the game was a very poor decision that,  it can be argued, cost his Patriot team the game.  He was under pressure late in the play, and nobody wants Justin Tuck breathing down their neck. And from one’s endzone, everything looks different. But intentional grounding is intentional grounding. Everybody knows the rules and to throw the ball that far from any receiver is intentional grounding. For Tom Terrific to start the Super Bowl in this fashion says something about him, something other than “I am the greatest quarterback of all time.”

One final note about greatness. Greatness in a team sports, to me, requires a genuine team attitude. At the conclusion of the AFC Championship game vs. Baltimore, Sir Brady said the ultimate selfish thing in the very first moment after the game. He chose to say, “I sucked tonight.” True, Tom, you DID suck. But football is a team sport, maybe even the ultimate team sport. In that moment, your team – 53 other guys – just reached the penultimate goal in that sport – a ticket to the Super Bowl. Your TEAM achieved that , albeit in that particular game, in spite of rather than because of you. But a team guy doesn’t focus on himself in such a moment, whether he plays perfectly or horribly. A team guy would have said, “We’re going to the Super Bowl. Our team managed to win ten straight games together, with each guy making a difference somewhere along the line. I am happy for all the guys, especially those guys who have never been to the big game. I wish I had played better, because I didn’t play my best game. But all that matters is that we are a team and that we have plenty of other guys to step up when I don’t.” And if asking Brady to be this articulate in the moment is too much to ask, I suppose he could have just done what Eli Manning did the second time expired in Super Bowl 46. Eli ran out onto the field to find and hug Justin Tuck, who may have been more responsible than Eli for this championship. That is what greatness looks like in a team sport. Maybe Tom Brady can learn a little something about greatness from this year’s run to the Super Bowl. I hope so. But even if he can’t, I hope at least some of the blind Brady worshippers in the sports media can.  

Saturday, February 4, 2012

Time to Play Ball! What I look for in Super Bowl 46

Well, we've had two weeks of analysis up the wazoo! Every angle, every perspective, every view of Gronkowski's ankle. I wish the NFL would have the good sense to go back to playing this game one week after the respective conference championships. But it is what it is, and, mercifully, it's almost game time. So what should we look for? What will it come down to?

First, to the extent that the Pats can go to their two tight end sets, that could, very likely, neutralize New York's defensive line advantage. Give Brady that little extra time, that modicum of protection and he could have a game to remember, based on quick slants to Welker and Brown and little screens and swing passes to Hernandez, Faulk, and Green-Ellis.

Next, if the Giants can't run with some combination of Bradshaw and Jacobs, not only will they not win, but they won't deserve to win. These two guys are beasts, but for some reason I can't figure, the Giants haven't fed them consistently throughout the playoffs. Jacobs has been on the bench 95% of the time for reasons I have yet to determine, and Bradshaw has only been moderately effective. So New York has got to get these guys running north-south and averaging 4 yards plus a carry, if they're serious about winning.

Third, let's all be prepared for one or two major Belichick wrinkles. We saw him running Hernandez as a tailback out of the backfield earlier in the playoffs. We've seen him use Julian Edelman and Troy Brown in the defensive backfield. I look for a few plays to target the all-but-retired Chad Ocho-Cinco. I wouldn't be too surprised if Brady even throws a few to  Sebastian Vollmer, the big offensive tackle from Houston, down in goal line situations, as he used to do with Mike Vrabel in days gone by. And then there's Danny Woodhead, captain of the All-Napolean team.

Fourth, we've heard a ton about the Patriots' defensive woes, particularly in the secondary. They'll have their hands full with Nicks, Cruz, and Manningham. And don't forget that the Giants have a pretty solid tight end of their own in Jake Ballard. But Bill Belichick has always been and still is a defensive genius. With two weeks to prepare for anybody, he can find a way to hide his own team's weaknesses and exploit the opposition's. Will he dial up blitzes, stunts with his D-line and backers, or just disguise the heck out of his coverage packages? He has always been the one coach in the league that not only comes up with the great game plan but also makes the mid-game and half-time adjustments that bring home the W.

And fifth, what about special teams? It was this area of the game that cost both the Niners and the Ravens from getting to the promised land. Who gets the special teams edge in Super Bowl 46? Well, in terms of punting, the Patriots have the ultimate field switcher in Zoltan Mesko. He is the league's most consistent and booming punter, in both distance and hang time. But in the field goal game, it is advantage Tynes and the G-men. On the return side, both squads have players who can bust off the long return, but the Giants have coughed up the ball lately. I see no clear advantage here.

Pretty much all of the experts are picking the Giants, and I think that is because man for man, they have more talent on both sides of the ball. But it's all going to come down to how those players play. Who brings it tomorrow from 6:30 to 10:00 pm EST? I'm glad I'm not a betting man, but if I were, I'd probably put my money on...the point spread. Play ball!